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Repair or Replace a Furnace? Age, the 25% Rule and Efficiency

Updated November 2, 2026 · General information, not HVAC or gas-fitting advice

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The short answer: Minnesota Commerce says most furnaces last 15 to 20 years, and that spending 25% or more of the cost of a new furnace on repairs may mean it is time to replace. ENERGY STAR says to have equipment evaluated if it is more than 10 years old. Get a written heat-loss calculation and several quotes. We found no sourced repair or replacement prices.

The signs (Minnesota Commerce)

SignWhat the guide says
AgeMost furnaces have a useful life of 15 to 20 years, depending on conditions. As yours approaches the end, start planning.
Expensive repairsSpending 25% or more of the cost of a new furnace on repairs may indicate it is time to replace.
Low efficiencyFurnaces at 80% AFUE or less cost real dollars in fuel. Going to 95% may easily pay for itself over the new furnace's life.

Source: Minnesota Department of Commerce Home Energy Guide, Furnace Replacement.

The guide says that buying a new furnace in January after the old one died unexpectedly may not lead to the best choices, so start research early.

What to look for in a new furnace

The example (not your house)

For a sample 2,500 to 3,000 sq ft Twin Cities home and $0.77 per therm gas, the guide shows about $291 a year saved going from 80% to 95% AFUE. Your savings depend on your home and gas price. That is an example, not a promise.

Prices

We found no sourced figure for repair or installed replacement cost, so we give none. Get at least two written quotes that include the heat-loss calculation.

Want quotes from licensed pros?

Gas, burner, ignition and venting problems are for a licensed HVAC technician. Our guide covers which signs mean call now.

When to call an HVAC technicianFind a licensed HVAC pro near you

Common questions

How long does a furnace last?

Minnesota Commerce says most furnaces have a useful life of 15 to 20 years, depending on conditions.

What is the 25% rule?

Minnesota Commerce says spending 25% or more of the cost of a new furnace on repairs may be an indication it is time to replace rather than repair.

Is a bigger furnace better?

No. Minnesota Commerce says oversized furnaces cycle more frequently, cause extra wear and cost more to buy.

Related guides

Sources
  1. Minnesota Department of Commerce: Home Energy Guide, Furnace Replacement
  2. ENERGY STAR: Heating & Cooling
  3. ENERGY STAR: Furnaces Key Product Criteria